Kasuwannin Hasashe na Amurka a Karkashin Bincike: Kalshi A Karkashin Matsin Lamba, Kasuwancin Dala Biliyan Yana Girma

Duniyar kasuwannin hasashe a Amurka tana cikin rudani. Rashin nasara a kotu ga Kalshi a New York yana da tasiri mai fa'ida. A lokaci guda, sabbin dokokin haraji da yawan ciniki da suka yi tarihi suna taimakawa masana'antar ta ci gaba.

Masu gudanar da mulki a jihohi da dama suna kara sukar wadannan kasuwanni. Suna ikirarin cewa ya kamata a rarraba yawancin tayin a matsayin caca ta wasanni kuma a karkashin dokokin jiha.

Lambobi da Gaskiya

Bisa kididdiga daga rahoton Macquarie Equity Research, a watan Yunin 2026, kasuwannin hasashe sun kai yawan ciniki sama da dala biliyan 50 na Amurka. Wannan yana sanya yawan ciniki na shekara-shekara sama da dala biliyan 500 na Amurka. Kalshi ta mamaye wannan kasuwa da kimanin dala biliyan 33 a ciniki, wanda ya kai kashi 65 cikin dari na jimillar yawan ciniki. A watan Mayu, kasuwar Kalshi har yanzu tana da kashi 57 cikin dari.

Polymarket, wani babban dan wasa, yanzu yana neman amincewa don cinikayyar margin a Amurka. Hakan na iya kara jan hankalin masu zuba jari na cibiyoyi a fannin. Hukumar Kula da Ciniki ta Amfani da Kayayyakin Masu Amfani (CFTC) ta amince da Optex Markets a matsayin sabuwar kasuwa. An bayar da amincewar ne cikin watanni shida, wanda ke nuna saurin ci gaba a wannan bangare.

Bayan Fage

Yanke shawara da kotun tarayya ta yi a New York na kin amincewa da bukatar Kalshi na dakatar da aiki na wucin gadi ya kafa tarihi. Alkalin Analisa Torres ya jaddada cewa, sarrafa caca tun da dadewa yana hannun jihohi. Wannan yanke shawara yanzu wasu jihohi kamar Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, Utah, da Wisconsin suna amfani da ita a cikin shari'o'in nasu kan kasuwannin hasashe.

North Carolina ta riga ta bullo da sabon kudin haraji na kashi 6 cikin dari ga masu gudanar da kasuwannin hasashe kan net din samun su daga ciniki. Wannan ya kamata a lura saboda jiha ba ta kafa cikakken lasisin ko kuma ikon sarrafa waɗannan kasuwanni ba. Gwamnan Arizona Katie Hobbs ya bayar da umarni na hana ma'aikatan jihar yin cinikin cikin gida a kasuwannin hasashe. California, New York, da Illinois suma sun bayar da irin wannan haramci. Brian Quintenz, tsohon shugaban kwamitin CFTC, ya shiga kungiyar Coalition for Prediction Markets a matsayin mai ba da shawara. Wannan kungiya tana goyon bayan masana'antar.

Ganin dalla-dalla na masana'antar kuma yana nuna rashin amfani. Binciken Wall Street Journal na Mayu 2026 ya nuna cewa 'yan wasa kadan ne kawai a wurare kamar Polymarket da Kalshi ke samun riba. Wadannan galibi masu ciniki ne na kwararru wadanda ke amfani da hanyar ciniki ta algorithm mai amfani da bayanai.

"Ina gab da kasa biyan kudin renata, amma na samu kudin renata na shekaru biyu ta hanyar hasashen Kalshi." - Magana daga wata mata a tallan Kalshi a TikTok

Wannan magana, a cewar Wall Street Journal, ba ta nuna gaskiyar ga yawancin masu amfani ba. John Pederson, tsohon mai dafa abinci, alal misali, ya rasa dala 41,000 a Kalshi. Ya taba samun dala 2,000 zuwa dala 41,000, amma ya rasa komai a kan fare mai hadari. Masu gudanar da mulki a Maryland, Nevada, da New Jersey sun riga sun umarci Kalshi da ta daina aiki. Suna ganin kwangilolin al'amuran dandamali a matsayin caca ba tare da lasisi ba. Massachusetts ma ta yi karar Kalshi a watan Satumban 2025 saboda "haramun da hadari na caca ta wasanni." Babban Lauyan Andrea Campbell ta yi ikirarin cewa tayin Kalshi ba shi da bambanci da mai samar da caca ta wasanni, wanda zai bukaci a ba da lasisi, a ba da haraji, kuma a sarrafa shi ta jiha. Kalshi da kanta ta yi ikirarin cewa ita "dandali ce mai adalci, bayyane, wanda gwamnati ke sarrafawa, kuma ta kasa baki daya."

Me Ya Sa Yake Da Muhimmanci Ga 'Yan Wasan Jamus

Ga 'yan wasan Jamus, wadannan ci gaban a Amurka ba su da tasiri kai tsaye ga tayin da ke karkashin ka'idojin caca na Jamus. A Jamus, Yarjejeniyar Jiha kan Caca ta 2021 (GlüStV 2021) ta haramta kasuwannin hasashe kamar yadda suke a Amurka. Hukumar Hadin Gwiwa ta Jihohi kan Caca (GGL) tana ba da lasisi kawai ga online slots, online poker, da caca ta wasanni a Jamus. Dandali da ke bayar da irin wadannan "kasuwannin hasashe" ba a yarda da su a nan ba. Saboda haka, 'yan wasa ya kamata su yi amfani da tayi daga masu samarwa da ke jerin sunayensu a cikin jerin masu cancantar GGL kawai. Wadannan gidajen caca suna tabbatar da bin ka'idoji masu tsauri, kamar iyaka ta Yuro 1 a kowane juyi akan injunan ramummuka da kuma iyaka na ajiya na Euro 1,000 a kowane wata. Hakanan suna haɗe da tsarin keɓancewar ɗan wasa na LUGAS. Saboda haka, an kare 'yan wasan Jamus daga tayin da ba a sarrafa su ba da kuma haɗarin da ke tattare da su. Rikicin da ake yi a Amurka ya nuna muhimmancin daidaita ka'idoji masu ma'ana don kare masu amfani.

Abin Da Hakan Ke Nufi Ga Gidajen Caca masu Lasisi na GGL

Ga masu gudanar da gidajen caca masu lasisi na GGL a Jamus, wannan ya tabbatar da hanyar da aka zaba a farko. Yarjejeniyar Jiha kan Caca ta Jamus, wacce ta fara aiki a ranar 1 ga Yuli, 2021, ta kafa iyakoki masu ma'ana ga tayin caca ta kan layi. Yana bayyane ya haramta wuraren da ba a sarrafa su ba kamar kasuwannin hasashe da ba su da sarari. Gidajen caca na GGL dole ne su kiyaye ka'idoji masu tsauri game da kare 'yan wasa. Wadannan sun hada da hanyoyin fasaha don tabbatar da ainihin ɗan wasa da shekaru, haɗi zuwa tsakiyar bayanai na LUGAS don sa ido kan iyakokin ajiya, da kuma cire 'yan wasan da aka dakatar. Zane na wasannin shima yana karewa daga abubuwan motsa sha'awa da yawa. Ci gaban da ake yi a Amurka, inda rashin rarrabuwa mai ma'ana tsakanin samfurin kuɗi da kasuwar caca ke haifar da matsalolin shari'a, ya nuna mahimmancin wannan daidaituwa. Masu samarwa na Jamus suna aiki a cikin tsarin shari'a mai aminci wanda ke kare masu amfani kuma a lokaci guda yana bada damar tayin caca ta halal.